The International Journal of Human Resource Management

Addressing Ultra-Low Fertility and Workforce Shrinkage: A Human-Centered HRM Response to the Demographic Crisis

Objectives of the Special Issue

Low fertility is emerging as a critical challenge in international human resource management (HRM). Ultra-low fertility—defined as a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.3 or lower—is no longer confined to East Asia. It is now present across diverse regions, including parts of Southern and Eastern Europe (e.g., Italy, Spain, Poland), high-income Asian economies (e.g., South Korea, Japan, Singapore), and is increasingly affecting advanced economies in North America and Oceania. As of 2022, around 20 countries face ultra-low fertility, while 152 nations fall below the replacement level of 2.1 (OECD, 2024).

This demographic crisis is transforming HRM from a support function into a strategic imperative. Policymakers around the world are sounding the alarm—South Korea warns of “national extinction,” Japan calls it a “quiet emergency,” and several European nations are grappling with labor market stagnation. The risks of shrinking workforces, declining productivity, and rising costs for talent acquisition and retention are now central economic concerns (Bloom et al., 2011; Lee & Mason, 2010).

In response, a wave of HRM innovation has emerged globally. Strategies include expanded parental leave, work-life balance initiatives, AI-enabled workforce planning, and inclusive hiring to integrate underutilized groups such as women, older workers, and immigrants. Scholars are also extending and rethinking foundational HRM frameworks—such as the Resource-Based View, Institutional Theory, and Social Exchange Theory—to address the complexities of demographic scarcity.

Key causes of ultra-low fertility vary by context but often include insufficient work-family support, gender inequality, and cultural norms that discourage caregiving among working professionals (De Clercq & Brieger, 2022; Wilkinson & Rouse, 2023).

This Special Issue aims to fill a critical research gap by examining the global HRM implications of ultra-low fertility and exploring diverse, human-centered strategies for building sustainable, inclusive, and resilient workforces.

 

The Theoretical Background of the Special Issue

1. Rethinking Core HRM Theories for Demographic Scarcity

Resource-Based View (RBV) and Dynamic Capabilities: The RBV assumption of heterogeneous resource access (Barney, 1991) must be revisited when human capital becomes universally scarce. This SI encourages work that:

• Develops a “Scarcity-Based View” of HRM, theorizing competitive advantage amid widespread labor depletion
• Extends dynamic capabilities theory (Teece et al., 1997) to define “demographic agility”—the capacity to rapidly adapt HRM to demographic change
• Proposes new mechanisms for integrating human and technological resources in response to labor shortages

Human Capital Theory: Classic models (Becker, 1964; Schultz, 1961) presume labor stability. Contributors may:

• Theorize the “demographic premium,” where labor scarcity amplifies the value of specific skills
• Offer models for “human capital preservation” to mitigate knowledge loss in shrinking organizations

2. Institutional and Cultural Complexity in the Fertility-HRM Nexus

Neo-Institutional Theory: This SI advances institutional perspectives (DiMaggio & Powell, 1983) by exploring how HRM navigates competing logics:

• Frameworks that reconcile global HR “best practices” with local fertility norms
• Theorization of “institutional fertility regimes”—blends of regulatory, normative, and cultural influences on HRM
• Analysis of institutional entrepreneurship driving gender-equity reforms

Cultural Paradox Theory: New theories are needed to explain contradictions such as:

• The “Asian Paradox”: strong family values coexisting with ultra-low fertility
• How cultural tightness-looseness (Gelfand et al., 2011) shapes policy uptake
• The persistence of outdated HRM norms due to cultural inertia

Beyond adapting existing theories, this SI encourages the creation of context-specific models capturing emerging HRM dynamics. For example, how do societal anxieties around national decline influence workforce strategy? How do demographic shifts reconfigure the relationships between values, strategy, and HRM?

Submissions should adopt multi-level approaches—linking national policy, organizational HRM, fertility behavior, and labor force participation. Comparative, cross-national research is especially welcome. Despite similar TFRs, HRM consequences vary widely: East Asia's familial norms coexist with low fertility (Whittaker, 2022), while individualistic cultures in the West face their own HRM pressures (Han & Brinton, 2022). Surface-level similarities often obscure critical contextual differences (Debroux et al., 2018).

The SI also seeks to theorize why conventional family-friendly HRM policies often fall short—due to patriarchal norms (Lee, 2009), cultural resistance (Kossek & Distelberg, 2009), or inadequate personalization (Wilkinson & Rouse, 2023). Innovations such as AI-augmented work, radical flexibility, and diversity-centered talent strategies (Rashimi & Kataria, 2022; Park et al., 2022) offer promising directions.

Ultimately, this SI seeks to advance rigorous theory and empirically grounded, comparative research to inform HRM practices that support sustainable, inclusive responses to demographic decline, in line with IJHRM’s global mission (Tarique & Schuler, 2010).

 

Potential Topics

Work–Life Balance Challenges

• Family-Friendly HRM Policies: Investigating workplace cultures that hinder work–life balance and their effects on fertility decisions.
• Gender Inequality: Analyzing the impact of limited maternity/paternity leave and insufficient childcare support on women's ability to balance careers and family planning.
• Cultural Expectations: Examining societal norms surrounding traditional gender roles and their influence on fertility rates.
• Promoting Family-Friendly Environments: Implementing on-site childcare, generous parental leave, and financial incentives for families to support reproductive choices and retention.
• Changing Work Culture: Fostering inclusive and supportive environments that prioritize work–life balance and psychological safety.

Adapting HR Practices

• Flexible Work Policies: Designing initiatives like remote work, reduced hours, and enhanced parental leave to support employees' family needs.
• Upskilling and Reskilling: Addressing skill gaps caused by workforce shrinkage through continuous training and development programs.
• Inclusive Benefits: Offering childcare support, eldercare programs, and fertility treatments to attract and retain talent.
• Encouraging Diversity and Inclusion: Expanding workforce participation by tapping into underutilized labor pools, such as older workers, women, and immigrants.
• Innovative Recruitment Strategies: Expanding international recruitment efforts and investing in long-term talent pipelines for younger demographics.

Human-Centered AI Solutions

• Human-Centered AI Solutions: Deploying AI tools that enhance productivity without undermining employee wellbeing or autonomy, particularly in low-fertility contexts.
• AI-Assisted Work–Life Balance: Exploring predictive analytics and AI tools for holiday planning, childcare, and parental leave tailored to employees’ life-stage needs.
• AI-Facilitated Servant Leadership and Psychological Safety: Using AI to support leadership practices that reduce employees’ fear of family planning and childbearing.
• AI-Driven Work Redesign for Couples: Leveraging AI to co-develop personalized work schedules for dual-earner couples, based on their actual needs rather than top-down mandates.
• Digital Twin Modeling: Using digital twins to simulate and optimize career–family pathways for HR decision-making and personalized planning.
• AI and Automation: Utilizing technology to address labor shortages, enhance productivity, and optimize workforce management.