Goodeve Medal 2017
Journal of the Operational Research Society
About the prize
Aimée Backiel, KU Leuven, Belgium
Bart Baesens, University of Southampton, UK & KU Leuven, Belgium
Gerda Claeskens, KU Leuven, Belgium
The Goodeve Medal is awarded in recognition of the most outstanding contribution to the philosophy, theory or practice of OR published in the Journal of the Operational Research Society (JORS) within the relevant year (2016).
Predicting time-to-churn of prepaid mobile telephone customers using social network analysis
Journal of the Operational Research Society 67: 1135-1145
Mobile phone carriers in a saturated market must focus on customer retention (churn) to maintain profitability. This study investigates whether the incorporation of social network information into churn prediction models can lead to improved accuracy, timeliness, and profitability. Records of 1.4 million customers making over 30 million calls per month were analysed for 6 months using Cox proportional hazards models, enabling improved predictions of likelihood of churn for each individual customer to be determined for each future time segment. This paper demonstrates how OR and analytics can improve business performance in a market that is used by almost everyone.