Economic History of Developing Regions

Economic Shrinking in Development

Economic shrinking—defined as a year of negative per capita income growth—is a recurrent yet understudied feature of long-run economic development, both in the past and in the present. Economies differ in the frequency and severity of economic shrinking they experience, as well as in their ability to cope with it. While growth processes and structural transformation have been extensively examined, the causes, consequences, and governance of economic shrinking remain comparatively unexplored.  The aim of this special issue is to place economic shrinking at the centre of inquiry, inviting fresh perspectives from economic history, development economics, political economy, and related fields.

We invite theoretical, methodological, and empirical contributions that advance the understanding of economic shrinking and its role in broader development dynamics. Submissions may investigate shrinking from multiple perspectives, including: growth accounting, institutional change and policy responses, demographic pressures, technological capability and innovation, macroeconomic fragility, public finance constraints, external shocks, conflict, climate events, or long-term historical patterns. Comparative and cross- country approaches are welcome, as are studies that prioritise temporal depth and case study experiences. Papers examining how people and governments have responded to economic shrinking, especially in terms of their expectations, views on inequality, and well-being, are also welcome.

We encourage contributions that examine shrinking not only as a macroeconomic outcome but also as a social, institutional and political process. Papers may explore how societies absorb, adapt to, or transform through shrinking; how social capabilities evolve in the face of downturns; or how governance and policy strategies mitigate the frequency, duration, or depth of shrinking episodes. We also welcome methodological contributions, including approaches to measuring shrinking, identifying its regimes, or linking descriptive and causal analyses.

The special issue seeks contributions covering a wide range of geographic and historical contexts, with no restriction on time period or income level. The only restriction is that the contributions need to concern developing countries in the Global South (understood by the journal as countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia). Both cross-country and country-specific studies are of interest, as are North/South comparisons and analyses combining qualitative historical evidence with econometrics, archival work with quantitative reconstruction, or mixed-methods designs. We particularly encourage submissions from early career and female scholars, as well as researchers from developing countries.

For enquiries regarding suitability, scope, or fit with the special issue, please contact the guest editors.